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02/04/2012 - Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester City went top of the Premier League on Saturday after defeating Fulham, 3-0, on a snowy night at the Etihad.
The Citizens take a three-point lead in England's top tier as rivals Manchester United are set to face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.
Roberto Mancini's men cruised to a comfortable victory at home behind goals from the deadly partnership of Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko. Fulham defender Chris Baird also conceded an own goal to help City claim all three points.
City took the lead 10 minutes into the match in slightly controversial fashion.
Adam Johnson claimed a dubious penalty kick after going down in the box from minimal contact. Aguero took advantage, powering home from the spot to put the Citizens in front.
City's lead was doubled 20 minutes later thanks to an own goal from Baird. The Northern Ireland defender appeared out of sorts throughout the first half, and the Citizens benefited from his uneasiness as they grabbed a two-goal lead.
Dzeko added a third goal following some brilliant individual play from Aguero. The Argentine danced into the box and squared the ball to an unmarked Dzeko, and the 25-year-old stuffed a one-time effort into the back of the net.
The second half was interrupted several times due to the unyielding winter storm, as Etihad Stadium stewards shoveled the field lines clear of snow on multiple occasions. The blizzard has also threatened to delay Sunday's clash at Stamford Bridge.
It could not slow down Manchester City though, as the Citizens improve to 57 points through 24 games to set the pace in the EPL.
Fulham, meanwhile, suffers its first loss in three Premier League games to remain on 27 points.
Arsenal 7, Blackburn 1
London, England - Arsenal trounced 10-man Blackburn in a 7-1 victory at the Emirates on Saturday, giving the Gunners their first Premier League win of the new year.
Robin van Persie continued his goal-scoring tear with a hat trick, netting in the second, 38th, and 61st minutes. The Dutchman leads the Premier League with 22 goals on the season.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain also continued his impressive form with a brace, scoring in the 40th and 54th minutes.
Morten Gamst Pedersen notched an equalizer in the 32nd minute, but after quickly surrendering two more goals, Rovers were left with a mountain to climb as Gael Givet was issued a red card just before the break for a two-footed challenge.
Blackburn never recovered as Mikel Arteta and Thierry Henry tacked on second- half goals to complete the rout.
Swansea City 2, West Bromwich 1
West Bromwich, England - Swansea City surrendered the first goal at the Hawthorns but battled back in impressive fashion to claim a 2-1 win over West Bromwich on Saturday.
Marc-Antoine Fortune put the Baggies in front in the 54th minute, but Swansea quickly equalized through Gylfi Sigurdsson a minute later. Swansea did not have to wait long for the game-winner to materialize, as Danny Graham grabbed his eighth goal of the season in the 59th minute to hand the visitors all three points.
Swansea continues its stellar season in top-flight football, improving to 30 points on the season, while West Bromwich sits just above the relegation zone on 26 points.
Sunderland 1, Stoke City 0
Stoke-on-Trent, England - Sunderland continued its exceptional form under Martin O'Neill with a 1-0 win over 10-man Stoke City at the Britannia on Saturday.
The two sides entered the match tied on points, but the win sees Sunderland climb to eighth place on 33 points through 24 games.
Robert Huth was sent off for the Potters just before halftime, and the Black Cats capitalized on the man advantage in the second half as James McClean netted in the 60th minute to help his side claim their seventh win in 10 matches under the guidance of O'Neill.
Wolverhampton 2, QPR 1
London, England - Wolverhampton grabbed a much-needed win at Loftus Road on Saturday, edging 10-man QPR 2-1.
Newly-signed forward Bobby Zamora put the home side in front in the 16th minute, but his strike partner, Djibril Cisse, was issued a straight red card in the 34th minute to leave QPR up against it for the remaining hour.
Wolves utilized the extra man, as Matt Jarvis and Kevin Doyle provided second- half goals to see the visitors claim all three points.
Wolverhampton climbs out of the relegation zone and level with QPR as the two sides are deadlocked at 21 points.
Wigan 1, Everton 1
Wigan, England - Wigan and Everton traded second-half goals at the DW Stadium as the two sides played to a 1-1 draw Saturday.
The Latics went in front in the 76th minute after a goalkeeping gaffe from Tim Howard let in a Phil Neville own goal, but the Toffees responded seven minutes later as super-sub Victor Anichebe nodded home a cross from Leighton Baines to earn a share of the points.
Everton, on 30 points, is unbeaten in its last four Premier League games, while Wigan, bottom of the table on 16 points, put a halt to its four-game losing skid.
Norwich City 2, Bolton 0
Norwich, England - After picking up just one point from its last two matches, Norwich City got back to its winning ways with a 2-0 defeat of Bolton at Carrow Road on Saturday.
A scoreless opening period gave way to a two-goal showing from the Canaries in the second half, as goals from Andrew Surman in the 69th minute and Anthony Pilkington in the 85th minute saw the home side claim its eighth victory of the season.
Norwich looks a certain bet to stay in the Premier League following promotion last summer as it enjoys a comfortable ninth-place position on 32 points, while Bolton's struggles continue, sitting in the relegation zone on 20 points.
<< Georgetown cruises past South Florida
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Henry Sims had 13 points, nine rebounds and
five assists, as No. 14 Georgetown cruised past South Florida, 75-45, on
Saturday.
Otto Porter added 12 points and Jason Clark finished with 11 for the
<< Berdych, Monfils to meet for Montpellier title
Montpellier, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils were
semifinal winners Saturday and will meet for the title at the Open Sud de
France tennis tournament.
The top-seeded Berdych had little trouble in a 6-3, 6
<< Serbs, Belgians even after first day at Fed Cup
Charleroi, Belgium (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serbia and Belgium are even after the
first day of play at their Fed Cup quarterfinal.
Jelena Jankovic gave Serbia the first point on Saturday with a 7-5, 7-5 win
over Kirsten Flipkens, but Yanina
<< Azarenka withdraws from Fed Cup match
Worcester, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning Australian Open champion Victoria
Azarenka withdrew from her Fed Cup match with a lower back injury on Saturday.
She will be replaced by teammate Anastasiya Yakimova, but she is still
elig
Florida State holds off Virginia >>
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Okaro White scored 13 points and pulled
down five rebounds off the bench as No. 21 Florida State held off 16th-ranked
Virginia to earn a 58-55 victory at Tucker Center.
Xavier Gibson added 10 points
Irish down No. 15 Marquette for fourth straight win >>
South Bend, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pat Connaughton drained five three-pointers
en route to a game-high 23 points, as Notre Dame earned its fourth straight
win and snapped Marquette's seven-game winning streak with a 76-59 victory
over th
Boynton helps Florida down Vanderbilt >>
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenny Boynton scored 18 points, as No. 12
Florida earned a 73-65 win over No. 25 Vanderbilt in Saturday's hard-fought
SEC showdown.
Bradley Beal added 16 points and seven rebounds while Erving Walker
No. 6 Baylor holds off Oklahoma State >>
Stillwater, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Perry Jones III had 16 points and 11
rebounds as No. 6 Baylor survived to take a 64-60 win over Oklahoma State.
Pierre Jackson scored 16 points while Quincy Acy added 11 points and 12
rebounds
MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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