Patriots Out for Revenge in Miami

Football Betting Lines

11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been quite a few years since the Miami Dolphins were within striking distance of first place in the AFC East this late in a season. It's been even longer since the New England Patriots weren't occupying the division's top spot as the holidays approach.

The Patriots aim to avenge a humbling early-season loss to a rapidly-improving Miami club when the two rivals face off this Sunday at Dolphin Stadium.

These AFC East foes enter this key showdown one game behind the high-flying New York Jets for first place in the division standings, and share identical 6-4 records that can be viewed as surprising on both sides.

After suffering through the worst season in the franchise's storied history in 2007, the Dolphins have engineered a remarkable turnaround from last year's 1-15 campaign under rookie head coach Tony Sparano and new football operations director Bill Parcells. Miami is currently riding a four-game win streak following last Sunday's 17-15 edging of lowly Oakland, and has posted victories in six of its last eight outings after an 0-2 start.

That surge began with a stunning 38-13 rout of the defending AFC Champion Patriots on the road during Week 3, highlighted by Miami's unveiling of the now-in-vogue "Wildcat offense" in which running back Ronnie Brown was lined up in a shotgun formation to receive a direct snap from the center.

The scheme worked to remarkable perfection that day, with Brown piling up 113 yards and a team-record four rushing touchdowns on just 17 attempts. He also threw a 19-yard scoring pass to tight end Anthony Fasano against a bewildered New England defense.

The Patriots have managed to rebound from that defeat, not to mention the devastating year-ending knee injury to superstar quarterback Tom Brady in the season opener, to remain squarely in the playoff hunt. Although it's no longer the offensive juggernaut that steamrolled its way to a perfect regular season a year ago with the reigning league MVP on the sidelines, New England has discovered that it does indeed have a suitable replacement for Brady in previously untested backup Matt Cassel.

Cassel, who had not started a game of any kind since high school prior to being pressed into duty after Brady's ACL tear, showcased his credentials with a prolific passing performance in an overtime loss to the division-leading Jets in Week 11. The fourth-year pro racked up a career-best 400 yards and threw for three touchdowns in sparking a furious second-half rally that brought New England back from an 18-point deficit.

The Patriots sent the game into extra time on Cassel's 16-yard touchdown strike to standout wide receiver Randy Moss with just one second remaining in regulation, but the Jets won the coin toss to begin overtime and promptly put together a scoring drive that resulted in New York's 34-31 triumph.

SERIES HISTORY

Miami holds a 48-35 lead in its all-time regular season series with New England, including the above-mentioned 38-13 road victory when the teams met in Week 3. The Fins were swept in last year's home-and-home with New England, including a 49-28 home loss in Week 7 and a 28-7 defeat at Gillette Stadium in Week 16. The Dolphins last defeated the Patriots in Miami during the 2006 season, a 21-0 blanking. On Sunday, the Fins will be going for their first home-and-home sweep of the Pats since the 2000 season.

In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met three times in the postseason, with New England holding a 2-1 advantage there. The Patriots' most memorable postseason victory over Miami came in the 1985 AFC Championship, when New England escaped with a 31-14 triumph en route to its first-ever Super Bowl appearance. The clubs also met in AFC First-Round Playoff matchups in 1982 and 1997, with Miami winning the former (28-13) and New England taking the latter (17-3).

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 9-10 against Miami in his head coaching career, including 9-8 while with New England. Sparano is 1-0 versus both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

New England had initially employed a run-first mentality and a controlled passing game in the wake of Brady's loss, but that conservative approach was thrown out the window in the team's most recent contest, a sure signal of the Patriots' growing confidence in Cassel (2200 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT). The emerging signal-caller showed he was up to the task by completing 30-of-51 throws against the Jets and skillfully engineering a late touchdown drive to force overtime. Cassel also spread the football around very well in the close loss, as secondary targets Jabar Gaffney (23 receptions, 2 TD) and tight end Benjamin Watson (19 receptions, 1 TD) combined for 174 yards and two scores on 15 receptions with New York focusing its attention on Moss (46 receptions, 5 TD) and pass-catching machine Wes Welker (72 receptions, 718 yards, 1 TD). Welker still finished with 108 yards on seven grabs, and can become the first player in NFL history to compile six or more catches over the first 11 games of a season on Sunday. The Dolphins will also have to account for Cassel's ability to make plays with his legs, as he ranks second among quarterbacks with 185 rushing yards this year and scrambled eight times for 62 yards against the Jets.

Cassel's mobility should come in handy this week, as he'll be facing a potent Miami pass rush spearheaded by NFL current sack leader Joey Porter (38 tackles, 13.5 sacks). The mouthy outside linebacker was an absolute force in the Week 3 meeting between these teams, as he tied a career high with four quarterback takedowns and also forced a fumble in Miami's big win. Cassel has been sacked 32 times so far this season, which is tied for the most by any quarterback in the league. If the Patriots can keep Porter in check, they'll have a chance to attack a Dolphins defense that ranks just 20th versus the pass (222.6 ypg) and made struggling Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell appear competent last week. Veteran cornerback Will Allen (36 tackles, 2 INT, 12 PD) is the team's top cover man and did a good job against the dangerous Moss back in September, with the perennial All-Pro wideout managing just four catches for 25 yards in that game.

The Dolphins have been more stingy versus the run, having yielded a scant 91.3 yards per game via the ground (9th overall) as well as an excellent 3.7 yards per rush. Twelfth-year nose tackle Jason Ferguson (11 tackles) and experienced end Vonnie Holliday (34 tackles, 3.5 sacks) have been instrumental to the defense's success in that area, with the two seasoned linemen's prowess at tying up blockers allowing sturdy inside linebacker Channing Crowder (74 tackles) and hard-hitting strong safety Yeremiah Bell (76 tackles, 7 PD) room to make plays.

With primary ball carrier Laurence Maroney going down to a season-ending shoulder injury in early October, the Pats have used a hodgepodge of backs ranging from vets Sammy Morris (321 rushing yards, 4 TD, 12 receptions) and Kevin Faulk (319 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 3 total TD) to undrafted rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis (252 rushing yards, 4 TD, 2 receptions). Despite a lack of continuity at the position, New England has still averaged a strong 132.2 rushing yards per game (8th overall) for the year. Leading rusher Morris had just five carries for 14 yards last week in his return from a knee sprain, but should be more involved in the game plan come Sunday. Faulk has been a life- saver to an injury-plagued offense with his proficiency as a receiver and capability of playing a variety of roles.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

While the defense has done its part, no individual has been more critical to Miami's vast improvement than quarterback Chad Pennington (2374 passing yards, 8 TD, 5 INT). The over-the-summer acquisition is completing 67 percent of his passes and has masterfully directed an offense that has committed a league-low eight turnovers through the first 10 games. Pennington was at his accurate best against the Patriots earlier this year, with the former Jet hitting on 17-of-20 throws for 226 yards to help the Dolphins to victory. Wide receiver Greg Camarillo (49 receptions, 1 TD) is Miami's version of Welker in the club's ninth-ranked passing attack (236.0 ypg), while second-year speedster Ted Ginn Jr. (38 receptions, 1 TD) has shown flashes of game-breaking potential as a sophomore. Pennington has also made good use of his two tight ends, as both ex-Cowboy Fasano (22 receptions, 3 TD) and David Martin (20 receptions, 1 TD) have made contributions to the offense.

While Brown (605 rushing yards, 9 TD, 20 receptions) was the unquestioned star of the Dolphins' Week 3 win over the Patriots, the versatile running back has been splitting time with veteran Ricky Williams (437 rushing yards, 3 TD, 17 receptions) lately to give the team a more effective ground game. Brown is coming off a 16-carry, 101-yard effort against the Raiders, one week after Williams put up a season-best 105 yards and a touchdown on just 12 totes in a victory over Seattle. Miami is averaging a solid 117.5 rushing yards per game (12th overall) and is tied for second in the NFL with 14 touchdowns on the ground.

Injuries have had an impact on the New England defense as well, with rugged strong safety and team leader Rodney Harrison done for the season after tearing his quadriceps in Week 7 and pass-rushing outside linebacker Adalius Thomas (34 tackles, 5 sacks) sidelined indefinitely with a broken forearm suffered in a November 9 win over Buffalo. End Ty Warren (38 tackles, 2 sacks), one of the Pats' best run-stuffers, also missed last week's test with a groin strain, which played a part in the 140 rushing yards the Jets were able to amass on the unit. With the Patriots always tight-lipped about their wounded players, it's unclear as to whether Warren will be available on Sunday. The Pats will have young inside linebacker Jerod Mayo (85 tackles), who racked up 20 tackles against the Jets and is a leading Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, in uniform to lead a group that ranks a respectable 13th against the run (104.0 ypg). Normal special teamer Pierre Woods (28 tackles, 1 sack) had 11 stops and a sack in Week 11 while subbing for Thomas.

Thomas' absence definitely hurts a Patriots squad that didn't generate any pressure on Pennington earlier this season and was subsequently carved up in the process, but Harrison's loss has been softened by the play of 2007 first- rounder Brandon Meriweather (45 tackles), who is tied for the team lead with three interceptions and adds an athletic element to an otherwise nondescript secondary. With Thomas unavailable and Warren a question mark, New England will likely rely heavily on five-time Pro Bowl end and top sacker Richard Seymour (39 tackles, 6 sacks) to make Pennington uncomfortable in the pocket.

FANTASY FOCUS

All the fantasy hype surrounding this matchup is naturally centered around Brown, due to the Miami back's herculean day when these teams met back in September. Although there's little chance of him duplicating that production on Sunday, such a track record of success puts the former first-round pick in the thumbs-up category for this week. On the other hand, Cassel's gaudy passing numbers from his previous outing bodes well for his owners in dynasty leagues, but it's not enough to vault Brady's understudy into No. 1 quarterback status for fantasy purposes. Don't be fooled by Gaffney and Watson's excellent games from a week ago, but Welker and Moss are both pretty reliable plays for New England at wide receiver. On the Miami side, Pennington is a decent but not stellar option at quarterback, while Camarillo and Ginn are lower-tier receivers who are worthy of consideration. Both Morris and Faulk merit a look as flex plays as the Patriots' best two backs, but Miami's Williams is too inconsistent to use in such a role.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

A rematch with the team that handed them their most one-sided loss in the last three years just two months ago, plus some recent bulletin-board material provided by the always-chatty Porter, ensures that the Patriots will have plenty of motivation in a contest that could decide the fate of both clubs in regards to an AFC East title. Miami's easy domination of New England back in September should not be dismissed as simply an aberration, however, and the Dolphins have usually given Belichick fits even during their least competitive years. Pennington still has an edge over Cassel at the all-important quarterback position despite the latter's breakthrough performance against the Jets, and the Dolphins run the ball better and are better at defending it than New England. Cassel and the Patriots offense will provide a few more exciting moments than in its most recent encounter with Miami, but Porter and the Dolphins may still have the last word.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Dolphins 27, Patriots 20

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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